Friday, October 19, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 7: Rankings, projections, matchups for Robert Griffin III, Eli Manning

Robert Griffin III has been this year’s Cam Newton for fantasy owners. He is third in fantasy points for quarterbacks despite missing part of one game because of a concussion. And in the first game back from that injury last week, he showed no ill effects, passing for 182 yards, rushing for 138 and accounting for three touchdowns in Washington’s victory over Minnesota.
However, that game was at home and not against a battle-tested opponent. This week, Griffin III will get the next big test in his development as a top-notch quarterback when he and the Redskins travel to MetLife Stadium in New York to take on Eli Manning and the defending Super Bowl champion Giants.
The Giants are coming off a 26-3 rout of the 49ers, thought by many to be a Super Bowl contender. A big reason for New York’s decisive win was a pass rush that finally woke up after getting only eight sacks in the first five games. The Giants sacked San Francisco’s Alex Smith six times and forced him into three interceptions.
While Griffin will be tougher to corral than Smith because of his superior running ability, how that matchup goes down will be a big part of who comes out a winner and which fantasy players have good games on Sunday. What will happen? That’s where Sporting News’ Fantasy Source comes in, breaking down all the games from a fantasy perspective and assigning players such as Griffin a star rating, from five down to zero with five being like a white-tablecloth restaurant that serves foie gras.
The following are samples of what you’ll get in our matchup pages when you subscribe to Fantasy Source. To find out more about Fantasy Source, check out our promo page:

Redskins at Giants

5-Star Players
Victor Cruz, WR, Giants. Cruz has proved last year wasn’t a fluke and should continue to be one of the top fantasy options at his position. His 70 targets are tied with Reggie Wayne for tops in the NFL, and although the pace might lessen if Hakeem Nicks ever gets healthy, Cruz has double-digit touchdowns well within reach. The Redskins have the worst pass defense, so Cruz is a no-brainer.
4-Star Players
Eli Manning, QB, Giants. Despite knee and foot injuries taking away Hakeem Nicks’ effectiveness, Manning has used Cruz and a bevy of complementary options to keep the Giants’ passing offense on target. New York is ranked fifth in the NFL in passing offense, and as we mentioned, the Redskins are having problems defending the pass. Manning has had trouble against the Redskins, including losing twice last year, but Washington has too many question marks on defense to put up much fight this time.
3-Star Players
Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins. Griffin is third in fantasy scoring among QBs despite missing almost one entire game because of a concussion. He came back strong in the first game after that injury, rushing for 138 yards and accounting for three touchdowns. The Giants are 21st against the pass, and their pass rush didn’t wake up until last week. It’s a tough road division game, but we still like Griffin to put up some solid numbers. He has earned your trust to this point in the season.
For more Redskins at Giants, go to Fantasy Source.

Jets at Patriots

5-Star Players
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots. Brady hasn't been all-world in every game this season, but he's had either 300 yards passing or two touchdowns in every week so far. Last week, he did both in a loss. The Jets defense presents a formidable task, but it's nothing Brady hasn't handled before, and that was with Darrelle Revis. Brady remains a must-start QB1.
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Ridley's performance against the Seahawks (16 carries for 34 yards) was awful, but the Seahawks have one of the league's best run defenses. The Jets have not been strong in that department, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Without defensive tackle Kendrick Ellis and possibly defensive tackle Sione Pouha, there's no reason to believe that will get better. With Brandon Bolden also dealing with an injury, Ridley is primed for a huge game.
4-Star Players
Wes Welker, WR, Patriots. Talks of Welker's demise have been greatly exaggerated. He's now cleared 100 yards receiving in four straight weeks and before that he enjoyed a 95-yard effort in Week 2. He's scored TDs in the past two games. With no Revis, Welker should be in line for another fine performance. Even if Brady looks toward his tight ends more this week, Welker will get his.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. Things haven't been going as well in 2012 as they did in '11 for Gronk. He has caught just one TD pass in the last three weeks and has cleared 100 yards just once on the season. That said, tight ends as a group haven't been impressive and Gronkowski still rates as one of the best. The Jets have had struggles with him in the past, and there is little reason to believe that will be different this time. Gronkowski is a TE1 as usual.
For more Jets at Patriots, go to Fantasy Source.

Ravens at Texans

5-Star Players
Arian Foster, RB, Texans. Foster is a must-start every week anyway, but this actually isn't as bad of a matchup as it sounds. Baltimore's normally relentless run defense ranks just 26th in the league, plus it just lost leader Ray Lewis last week. Foster will have his usual high ceiling this weekend.
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens. Like Foster, Rice is matchup-proof, so don't worry about the Texans' No. 7 run defense. Rice ranks second among running backs behind Foster in standard fantasy points, so enjoy this matchup between two elite backs.
Justin Tucker, K, Ravens. The rookie checks in as a top-10 fantasy kicker through his first six games, nailing 12 of 13 field-goal attempts, including six from 40-plus yards. Tucker's strong, accurate leg and steady offense have elevated him to an every-week fantasy starter, even in a tough matchup against a stingy Houston defense that has kept kickers quiet. Trust Baltimore to give Tucker a few FG attempts, and, if it does, there's no reason to think he won't cash in on those opportunities.
4-Star Players
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens. Smith is proving to be a bit boom-or-bust in his second season as the Ravens' deep threat, but the booms definitely make him worth the risk. Although he has a tough task against the Texans' top-10 pass defense, Houston could be without top corner Johnathan Joseph (groin), who has been playing hurt lately. It's worth noting Houston just allowed five TD catches and two 100-yard games to Packers wide receivers last week, so this unit is hurting with or without Joseph. All it takes is one big play for Smith to pay fantasy dividends. Trust him as a No. 2 fantasy receiver.
For more Ravens at Texans, go to Fantasy Source.
Fantasy Source also has rankings, projections, tools and expert advice from writers such as Ladd Biro, two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association football writer of the year, that will help you analyze your start-sit decisions this week. Also, check out this week’s RAM fantasy video where Bill Bender discusses the best bye-week fill-ins at defense, and our fantasy podcast, where Brad Pinkerton and George Winkler talk potential wide-receiver breakouts with Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt among those analyzed.
 

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